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Central limit theorems and the geometry of polynomials
Marcus Michelen, Julian Sahasrabudhe · 2019-08-24 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Let $X \in \{0,\ldots,n \}$ be a random variable, with mean $μ$ and standard deviation $σ$ and let \[f_X(z) = \sum_{k} \mathbb{P}(X = k) z^k, \] be its probability generating function. Pemantle conjectured that if $σ$ is large and $f_X$ has no roots close to $1\in \mathbb{C}$ then $X$ must be approximately normal. We completely resolve this conjecture in the following strong quantitative form, obtaining sharp bounds. If $δ= \min_ζ|ζ-1|$ over the complex roots $ζ$ of $f_X$, and $X^{\ast} := (X-μ)/σ$, then \[ \sup_{t \in \mathbb{R}} \left|\mathbb{P}(X^{\ast} \leq t) - \mathbb{P}( Z \leq t) \, \right| = O\left(\frac{\log n}{δσ} \right) \] where $Z \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1)$ is a standard normal. This gives the best possible version of a result of Lebowitz, Pittel, Ruelle and Speer. We also show that if $f_X$ has no roots with small argument, then $X$ must be approximately normal, again in a sharp quantitative form: if we set $δ= \min_ζ|\arg(ζ)|$ then \[ \sup_{t \in \mathbb{R}} \left|\mathbb{P}(X^{\ast} \leq t) - \mathbb{P}( Z \leq t) \, \right| = O\left(\frac{1}{δσ} \right). \] Using this result, we answer a question of Ghosh, Liggett and Pemantle by proving a sharp multivariate central limit theorem for random variables with real-stable probability generating functions.