惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

WordPress大学
WordPress大学
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
Y
Y Combinator Blog
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
D
DataBreaches.Net
GbyAI
GbyAI
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
博客园_首页
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
Jina AI
Jina AI
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
IT之家
IT之家
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
月光博客
月光博客
U
Unit 42
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
博客园 - 叶小钗
腾讯CDC
B
Blog RSS Feed
博客园 - Franky
爱范儿
爱范儿

math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Visibility in the Boolean Model on Harmonic Manifolds Global estimates on the Brenier map Geodesics and Wandering Exponents in Brochette First-Passage Percolation State-dependent inverse-subordinator time changes of regenerative processes: Excursion structure and multiscale occupation-time limits Randomly twisted transfer operators and singular values statistics Generalized Bessel-Dunkl diffusions An almost sure invariance principle for the Takagi-van der Waerden class functions Central limit theorems for high dimensional lattice polytopes: cosmological polytopes Convergence rate estimates for semigroups and heat kernels associated with resistance forms Second-order Poincaré inequalities and localization on the Poisson space Maximum Probability of Independence in Transitive Matroids On global solutions to the semidiscrete stochastic heat equation The Poisson Tail Conjecture for primes in short intervals A Complete Spectral Analysis of the CEV Operator with Applications to Arbitrage Holographic functions and neural networks From Betting to Empirical Bernstein LIL Concentration of General Stochastic Approximation Under Heavy-Tailed Markovian Noise Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks Bayesian Latent Space Models for Graphs Are Misspecified: Toward Robust Inference via Generalized Posteriors Wasserstein bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models via the Föllmer process A note on connections between the Föllmer process and the denoising diffusion probabilistic model Simple Approximation and Derivative Free Inference-Time Scaling for Diffusion Models via Sequential Monte Carlo on Path Measures Diffusion-Based Stochastic Operator Networks for Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Fourier perspective on the learning dynamics of neural networks: from sample complexities to mechanistic insights Propagation of Chaos in Contextual Flow Maps Dimension-Uniform Discretization Analysis of Preconditioned Annealed Langevin Dynamics for Multimodal Gaussian Mixtures $α$-TCAV: A Unified Framework for Testing with Concept Activation Vectors Scaling Laws from Sequential Feature Recovery: A Solvable Hierarchical Model On the Limits of Latent Reuse in Diffusion Models State-of-art minibatches via novel DPP kernels: discretization, wavelets, and rough objectives
Chilled Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification: A Motiva...
Patrick Héas, Frédéric Cérou, Mathias Rousset · 2022-07-07 · via math.PR updates on arXiv.org

Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) extracted from satellite imagery are the only wind observations with good global coverage. They are important features for feeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Several Bayesian models have been proposed to estimate AMVs. Although critical for correct assimilation into NWP models, very few methods provide a thorough characterization of the estimation errors. The difficulty of estimating errors stems from the specificity of the posterior distribution, which is both very high dimensional, and highly ill-conditioned due to a singular likelihood. Motivated by this difficult inverse problem, this work studies the evaluation of the (expected) estimation errors using gradient-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The main contribution is to propose a general strategy, called here chilling, which amounts to sampling a local approximation of the posterior distribution in the neighborhood of a point estimate. From a theoretical point of view, we show that under regularity assumptions, the family of chilled posterior distributions converges in distribution as temperature decreases to an optimal Gaussian approximation at a point estimate given by the Maximum A Posteriori, also known as the Laplace approximation. Chilled sampling therefore provides access to this approximation generally out of reach in such high-dimensional nonlinear contexts. From an empirical perspective, we evaluate the proposed approach based on some quantitative Bayesian criteria. Our numerical simulations are performed on synthetic and real meteorological data. They reveal that not only the proposed chilling exhibits a significant gain in terms of accuracy of the point estimates and of their associated expected errors, but also a substantial acceleration in the convergence speed of the MCMC algorithms.