We compute the logarithmic asymptotics of the non-existence probability (and more generally the lower-tail probability) for a wide variety of combinatorial problems for a range of parameters in the `critical regime' between the regime amenable to hypergraph container methods and that amenable to Janson's inequality. Examples include lower tails and non-existence probabilities for subgraphs of random graphs and for $k$-term arithmetic progressions in random sets of integers. Our methods apply in the general framework of estimating the probability that a $p$-random subset of vertices in a $k$-uniform hypergraph induces significantly fewer hyperedges than expected. We show that under some simple structural conditions on the hypergraph and an upper bound on $p$ determined by a phase transition in the hard-core model on the infinite $k$-uniform, $Δ$-regular, linear hypertree, this probability can be accurately approximated by the Bethe free energy evaluated at the unique fixed point of a Belief Propagation operator on the hypergraph.