We prove that the `Upper Matching Conjecture' of Friedland, Krop, and Markström and the analogous conjecture of Kahn for independent sets in regular graphs hold for all large enough graphs as a function of the degree. That is, for every $d$ and every large enough $n$ divisible by $2d$, a union of $n/(2d)$ copies of the complete $d$-regular bipartite graph maximizes the number of independent sets and matchings of size $k$ for each $k$ over all $d$-regular graphs on $n$ vertices. To prove this we utilize the cluster expansion for the canonical ensemble of a statistical physics spin model, and we give some further applications of this method to maximizing and minimizing the number of independent sets and matchings of a given size in regular graphs of a given minimum girth.