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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
An uncertainty-aware Bayesian framework for machine learn...
Samuel Bilson, Miles McCrory, Anna Pustogvar · 2025-03-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Ensuring that predictions of machine learning (ML) classification models are accompanied by uncertainty estimates is one of the main pillars of trustworthy AI. Current research in uncertainty quantification focuses mainly on epistemic uncertainty of the ML model, but rarely takes account of input measurement uncertainty, which is vital for traceability in metrology. In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for generative ML classification models that takes account of input measurement uncertainty. We take the specific case of a Bayesian quadratic discriminant analysis (BQDA) model, and apply it to metrological land cover datasets from Copernicus Sentinel-2 from 2020 and 2021. We benchmark the performance of the model against more popular classification models used in land cover maps such as random forests and neural networks. To validate and assess the generalisability of such a model, we also run simulations over synthetic classification data, varying distribution type and strength of the input measurement noise. We find for both real and synthetic data, the BQDA model presented is more trustworthy, in the sense that it is more interpretable, explicitly models the input measurement uncertainty, and maintains predictive performance of class probability outputs across datasets over different domains and sizes, whilst also being more computationally efficient.