惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

月光博客
月光博客
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
H
Help Net Security
小众软件
小众软件
The Cloudflare Blog
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
爱范儿
爱范儿
量子位
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
IT之家
IT之家
博客园 - 【当耐特】
V
Visual Studio Blog
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
博客园_首页
Jina AI
Jina AI
D
Docker
博客园 - 司徒正美
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Conformal Prediction Beyond the Horizon: Distribution-Fre...
Feichen Gan, Youcun Lu, Yingying Zhang, Yukun Liu · 2025-10-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction intervals {for returns} in both on-policy and off-policy settings. Our method integrates distributional RL with conformal calibration, addressing challenges such as unobserved returns, temporal dependencies, and distributional shifts. We propose a modular pseudo-return construction based on truncated rollouts and a time-aware calibration strategy using experience replay and weighted subsampling. These innovations mitigate model bias and restore approximate exchangeability, enabling uncertainty quantification even under policy shifts. Our theoretical analysis provides coverage guarantees that account for model misspecification and importance weight estimation. Empirical results, including experiments in synthetic and benchmark environments like Mountain Car, show that our method significantly improves coverage and reliability over standard distributional RL baselines.