惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

G
Google Developers Blog
小众软件
小众软件
The Cloudflare Blog
S
SegmentFault 最新的问题
美团技术团队
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
博客园 - 聂微东
V
Visual Studio Blog
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
雷峰网
雷峰网
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
腾讯CDC
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
月光博客
月光博客
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
D
DataBreaches.Net
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
P
Proofpoint News Feed
J
Java Code Geeks
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Identifying Drivers of Predictive Aleatoric Uncertainty
Pascal Iversen, Simon Witzke, Katharina Baum, Bernhard Y. Renard · 2023-12-12 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations of point predictions in recognizing model limitations and enhancing transparent decision-making. So far, explanations of uncertainties have been rarely studied. The few exceptions rely on Bayesian neural networks or technically intricate approaches, such as auxiliary generative models, thereby hindering their broad adoption. We propose a straightforward approach to explain predictive aleatoric uncertainties. We estimate uncertainty in regression as predictive variance by adapting a neural network with a Gaussian output distribution. Subsequently, we apply out-of-the-box explainers to the model's variance output. This approach can explain uncertainty influences more reliably than complex published approaches, which we demonstrate in a synthetic setting with a known data-generating process. We substantiate our findings with a nuanced, quantitative benchmark including synthetic and real, tabular and image datasets. For this, we adapt metrics from conventional XAI research to uncertainty explanations. Overall, the proposed method explains uncertainty estimates with little modifications to the model architecture and outperforms more intricate methods in most settings.