惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

U
Unit 42
博客园 - Franky
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
月光博客
月光博客
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
雷峰网
雷峰网
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
C
Check Point Blog
爱范儿
爱范儿
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
博客园 - 聂微东
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
L
LangChain Blog
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
The Cloudflare Blog
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
On the use of case estimate and transactional payment dat...
Benjamin Avanzi, Matthew Lambrianidis, Greg Taylor, Bernard Wong · 2025-12-28 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The use of neural networks trained on individual claims data has become increasingly popular in the actuarial reserving literature. We consider how to best input historical payment data in neural network models. Additionally, case estimates are also available in the format of a time series, and we extend our analysis to assessing their predictive power. In this paper, we compare a feed-forward neural network trained on summarised transactions to a recurrent neural network equipped to analyse a claim's entire payment history and/or case estimate development history. We draw conclusions from training and comparing the performance of the models on multiple, comparable highly complex datasets simulated from SPLICE (Avanzi, Taylor and Wang, 2023). We find evidence that case estimates will improve predictions significantly, but that equipping the neural network with memory only leads to meagre improvements. Although the case estimation process and quality will vary significantly between insurers, we provide a standardised methodology for assessing their value.