惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
IT之家
IT之家
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
博客园 - 聂微东
C
Check Point Blog
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
博客园 - Franky
H
Help Net Security
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
博客园 - 叶小钗
J
Java Code Geeks
腾讯CDC
罗磊的独立博客
爱范儿
爱范儿
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
I
InfoQ
B
Blog
V
Visual Studio Blog
F
Fortinet All Blogs

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting with Structured Sha...
Vincent Le Guen, Nicolas Thome · 2020-10-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Probabilistic forecasting consists in predicting a distribution of possible future outcomes. In this paper, we address this problem for non-stationary time series, which is very challenging yet crucially important. We introduce the STRIPE model for representing structured diversity based on shape and time features, ensuring both probable predictions while being sharp and accurate. STRIPE is agnostic to the forecasting model, and we equip it with a diversification mechanism relying on determinantal point processes (DPP). We introduce two DPP kernels for modeling diverse trajectories in terms of shape and time, which are both differentiable and proved to be positive semi-definite. To have an explicit control on the diversity structure, we also design an iterative sampling mechanism to disentangle shape and time representations in the latent space. Experiments carried out on synthetic datasets show that STRIPE significantly outperforms baseline methods for representing diversity, while maintaining accuracy of the forecasting model. We also highlight the relevance of the iterative sampling scheme and the importance to use different criteria for measuring quality and diversity. Finally, experiments on real datasets illustrate that STRIPE is able to outperform state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting approaches in the best sample prediction.