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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Prune 'n Predict: Optimizing LLM Decision-making with Con...
Harit Vishwakarma, Alan Mishler, Thomas Cook, Niccolò Dalmasso, · 2025-01-01 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, incorrect outputs pose significant risks in high-stakes domains like healthcare and finance. To quantify LLM uncertainty and thereby mitigate these risks, recent works employ conformal prediction (CP), a model- and distribution-agnostic framework that uses LLM outputs to generate a \emph{prediction set} containing the true answer with high probability. Leveraging CP, we propose \emph{conformal revision of questions} (CROQ), which revises the question by narrowing down the available choices to those in the prediction set and asking the LLM the revised question. We expect LLMs to be more accurate on revised questions with fewer choices. Furthermore, we expect CROQ to be effective when the prediction sets from CP are small. Commonly used logit scores often lead to large sets, diminishing CROQ's effectiveness. To overcome this, we propose CP-OPT, an optimization framework to learn scores that minimize set sizes while maintaining coverage. Our extensive experiments on MMLU, ToolAlpaca, and TruthfulQA datasets with multiple LLMs show that CROQ improves accuracy over the standard inference, with more pronounced gains when paired with CP-OPT.