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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Mitigating Covariate Shift in Misspecified Regression wit...
Philip Amortila, Tongyi Cao, Akshay Krishnamurthy · 2024-01-23 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

A pervasive phenomenon in machine learning applications is distribution shift, where training and deployment conditions for a machine learning model differ. As distribution shift typically results in a degradation in performance, much attention has been devoted to algorithmic interventions that mitigate these detrimental effects. In this paper, we study the effect of distribution shift in the presence of model misspecification, specifically focusing on $L_{\infty}$-misspecified regression and adversarial covariate shift, where the regression target remains fixed while the covariate distribution changes arbitrarily. We show that empirical risk minimization, or standard least squares regression, can result in undesirable misspecification amplification where the error due to misspecification is amplified by the density ratio between the training and testing distributions. As our main result, we develop a new algorithm -- inspired by robust optimization techniques -- that avoids this undesirable behavior, resulting in no misspecification amplification while still obtaining optimal statistical rates. As applications, we use this regression procedure to obtain new guarantees in offline and online reinforcement learning with misspecification and establish new separations between previously studied structural conditions and notions of coverage.