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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Identifying Elasticities in Autocorrelated Time Series Us...
2024-09-24 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The price elasticity of demand can be estimated from observational data using instrumental variables (IV). However, naive IV estimators may be inconsistent in settings with autocorrelated time series. We argue that causal time graphs can simplify IV identification and help select consistent estimators. To do so, we propose to first model the equilibrium condition by an unobserved confounder, deriving a directed acyclic graph (DAG) while maintaining the assumption of a simultaneous determination of prices and quantities. We then exploit recent advances in graphical inference to derive valid IV estimators, including estimators that achieve consistency by simultaneously estimating nuisance effects. We further argue that observing significant differences between the estimates of presumably valid estimators can help to reject false model assumptions, thereby improving our understanding of underlying economic dynamics. We apply this approach to the German electricity market, estimating the price elasticity of demand on simulated and real-world data. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural autocorrelation in IV-based analysis.