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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Simple Baseline for Predicting Events with Auto-Regress...
Alex Stein, Samuel Sharpe, Doron Bergman, Senthil Kumar, C. Baya · 2024-10-14 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Many real-world applications of tabular data involve using historic events to predict properties of new ones, for example whether a credit card transaction is fraudulent or what rating a customer will assign a product on a retail platform. Existing approaches to event prediction include costly, brittle, and application-dependent techniques such as time-aware positional embeddings, learned row and field encodings, and oversampling methods for addressing class imbalance. Moreover, these approaches often assume specific use-cases, for example that we know the labels of all historic events or that we only predict a pre-specified label and not the data's features themselves. In this work, we propose a simple but flexible baseline using standard autoregressive LLM-style transformers with elementary positional embeddings and a causal language modeling objective. Our baseline outperforms existing approaches across popular datasets and can be employed for various use-cases. We demonstrate that the same model can predict labels, impute missing values, or model event sequences.