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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Adaptive Conformal Prediction via Bayesian Uncertainty We...
Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi, Ali Baheri, Nasibeh Azadeh-Fard · 2026-01-04 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework that addresses this fundamental limitation in healthcare predictions. Our approach integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores while maintaining rigorous coverage validity. Evaluated on 61,538 admissions across 3,793 U.S. hospitals and 4 regions, our method achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision: 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases while appropriately widening for high-risk predictions. Critically, we demonstrate that well-calibrated Bayesian uncertainties alone severely under-cover (14.1%), highlighting the necessity of our hybrid approach. This framework enables risk-stratified clinical protocols, efficient resource planning for high-confidence predictions, and conservative allocation with enhanced oversight for uncertain cases, providing uncertainty-aware decision support across diverse healthcare settings.