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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Distribution-to-Distribution Neural Probabilistic Forec...
Tianlin Yang, Hailiang Du, Louis Aslett · 2026-03-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Probabilistic forecasting provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems by representing predictions as probability distributions rather than deterministic trajectories. However, existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or neural-network-based, remain fundamentally trajectory-oriented: predictive distributions are usually accessed through ensembles or sampling, rather than evolved directly as dynamical objects. A distribution-to-distribution (D2D) neural probabilistic forecasting framework is developed to operate directly on predictive distributions. The framework introduces a distributional encoding and decoding structure around a replaceable neural forecasting module, using kernel mean embeddings to represent input distributions and mixture density networks to parameterise output predictive distributions. This design enables recursive propagation of predictive uncertainty within a unified end-to-end neural architecture, with model training and evaluation carried out directly in terms of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework is demonstrated on the Lorenz63 chaotic dynamical system. Results show that the D2D model captures nontrivial distributional evolution under nonlinear dynamics, produces skillful probabilistic forecasts without explicit ensemble simulation, and remains competitive with, and in some cases outperforms, a simplified perfect model benchmark. These findings point to a new paradigm for probabilistic forecasting, in which predictive distributions are learned and evolved directly rather than reconstructed indirectly through ensemble-based uncertainty propagation.