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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

A Polyak-Ruppert Central Limit Theorem for SA-Adam with Momentum and Non-Convergent Adaptive Preconditioning Non-asymptotic Tail Bounds for the Kostlan--Shub--Smale Field: Tensor PCA and Spherical $k$-Spin Complexity Conformal Prediction Intervals with Tail-Specific Guarantees Another Look at Log-PCA for Probability Measures: A Dynamical Formulation and Statistical Convergence Tight $L_\infty$ Sample Complexity for Low-Degree and Sparse Boolean Polynomials Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty MA-SBI: Misspecification-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Side-Channel Guidance Policy Regret for Embedding Model Routing: Contextual Bandits with Low-Rank Experts LLMs on Tabular Data with Limited Semantics: Evidence from Industrial Car Retrofit Prediction Service-Induced Congestion in Memory-Constrained LLM Serving Proximal Policy Optimization for Amortized Discrete Sampling Topological Flow Matching Attention is Just Another Name for Coupling?: A Fast-Slow ODE Perspective on Hierarchical Pretraining Phantoms and Disclosures: a Causal Framework for Auditing Synthetic Data Learning a Sampling-Free Variational DNN Plugin from Tiny Training Sets to Refine OOD Segmentation With Uncertainty Estimation Exact Posterior Score Estimation for Solving Linear Inverse Problems Bridging data-driven priors via the score function for posterior sampling -- Comparative review and experimental study Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift A Koopman-PINN Framework for Epidemic Models: Parameter Inference and Forecasting Conformal Candidate Certification for Offline Model-Based Optimization Finite Resources False Discovery Rate Control in Structured Hypothesis Spaces The Reverse Telescoping Coordinate System for Positive Definite Matrices: Geometry, Computation, and Generative Modeling Structured Nonparametric Variational Inference for Dependent Latent Modeling Ricci-Filtration: Boosting Retrieval-Augmented Generation Reranker to Query-Answer Tasks by Discrete Ricci Flow Phase Transition in Convex Relaxations for Graph Alignment Information Gap and Feasibility-Aware Inference in Binomial Logistic Mixtures Stochastic trace estimation with tensor train random vectors Score-Based Martingale Posteriors for Deep Neural Networks Amortized mean-shift interacting particles Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data Representation Costs in Data Science: Foundations and the Quasi-Banach Spaces of Deep Neural Networks PromptShift-CRC: Drift-Aware Conformal Risk Control for Foundation Models Under Prompt and Domain Shift Closing the Approximation Gap in Simulation-free Latent SDEs On the Geometry of Separation in Finite Gaussian Mixtures Generative Modeling on Metric Graphs via Neural Optimal Transport Diffusion Flow Matching: Dimension-Improved KL Bounds and Wasserstein Guarantees Spectral Sparsification of Laplacian-Constrained Gaussian and Hüsler-Reiss Graphical Models Optimal Multiscale Learning of Linear Operators A nonparametric two-sample test using a parametric integral probability metric Sobolev Approximation by Fixed-Size Neural Networks with Arbitrary Accuracy Dynestyx: A Probabilistic Programming Library for Dynamical Systems Learning the Geometry of Data: A Mathematical Review of Shape Space Analysis Learning Topological Representations for Molecular Dynamics Event Generation with Parallel Langevin Sampling and Learned Stein Diagnostics PHINN: Persistent Homology Inspired Neural Network for Rare-Event Time Series Generation A Decision-Theoretic View of Test-Time Training: When, How Far, and Which Directions to Adapt The Data Manifold under the Microscope The limits of interpretability in multiple linear regression Stop the Sampler! 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Fast Nonparametric Conditional Independence Testing via Two-Stage Regression
[Submitted on 16 Jun 2026] · 2026-06-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

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Abstract:Constraint-based causal discovery relies on repeated conditional independence tests, but fast nonparametric tests often sacrifice calibration, especially when variables depend on the conditioning set through nonlinear relationships. We introduce BLITZ (Broad-to-Local Independence Testing via residualiZation), a nonparametric conditional independence test designed to run well under a second while maintaining the accuracy needed for the thousands of queries performed by constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. BLITZ first removes broad smooth dependence on the conditioning set using low-order polynomial regression, then applies a small nonlinear feature map and residualizes those features with shallow tree regressions. The resulting statistic tests residual cross-covariance, with a moment-matched chi-square approximation to the null distribution. We show theoretically that the two-stage design reduces the effective complexity faced by the tree residualizers, allowing shallow trees to control residual conditional-mean bias while avoiding excessive overfitting. In simulations, BLITZ provides better null calibration than fast kernel, random-feature, and regression-based competitors while remaining among the fastest methods tested. In causal discovery experiments on synthetic graphs and flow-cytometry data, BLITZ yields more reliable endpoint orientations among retained adjacencies and competitive structural recovery. These results suggest that broad-to-local residualization is a practical route to calibrated, scalable nonparametric conditional independence testing for causal discovery.

Submission history

From: Eric Strobl [view email]
[v1] Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:55:00 UTC (1,788 KB)