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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Hypothesis Testing over Observable Regimes in Singular Mo...
Sean Plummer · 2026-02-28 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Hypothesis testing in singular statistical models is often regarded as inherently problematic due to non-identifiability and degeneracy of the Fisher information. We show that the fundamental obstruction to testing in such models is not singularity itself, but the formulation of hypotheses on non-identifiable parameter quantities. Testing is inherently a problem in distribution space: if two hypotheses induce overlapping subsets of the model class, then no uniformly consistent test exists. We formalize this overlap obstruction and show that hypotheses depending on non-identifiable parameter functions necessarily fail in this sense. In contrast, hypotheses formulated over identifiable observables-quantities that are determined by the induced distribution-reduce entirely to classical testing theory. When the corresponding distributional regimes are separated in Hellinger distance, uniformly consistent tests exist and posterior contraction follows from standard testing-based arguments. Near singular boundaries, separation may collapse locally, leading to scale-dependent detectability governed jointly by sample size and distance to the singular stratum. We illustrate these phenomena in Gaussian mixture models and reduced-rank regression, exhibiting both untestable non-identifiable hypotheses and classically testable identifiable ones. The results provide a structural classification of which hypotheses in singular models are statistically meaningful.