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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Time-Serieswith th...
Rui Meng, Kristofer Bouchard · 2021-06-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Many modern time-series datasets contain large numbers of output response variables sampled for prolonged periods of time. For example, in neuroscience, the activities of 100s-1000's of neurons are recorded during behaviors and in response to sensory stimuli. Multi-output Gaussian process models leverage the nonparametric nature of Gaussian processes to capture structure across multiple outputs. However, this class of models typically assumes that the correlations between the output response variables are invariant in the input space. Stochastic linear mixing models (SLMM) assume the mixture coefficients depend on input, making them more flexible and effective to capture complex output dependence. However, currently, the inference for SLMMs is intractable for large datasets, making them inapplicable to several modern time-series problems. In this paper, we propose a new regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) that introduces an orthogonal constraint amongst the mixing coefficients. This constraint reduces the computational burden of inference while retaining the capability to handle complex output dependence. We provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures for both SLMM and OSLMM and demonstrate superior model scalability and reduced prediction error of OSLMM compared with state-of-the-art methods on several real-world applications. In neurophysiology recordings, we use the inferred latent functions for compact visualization of population responses to auditory stimuli, and demonstrate superior results compared to a competing method (GPFA). Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale time-series datasets.