惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

小众软件
小众软件
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
IT之家
IT之家
G
Google Developers Blog
Vercel News
Vercel News
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
V
V2EX
爱范儿
爱范儿
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
B
Blog
V
Visual Studio Blog
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
I
InfoQ
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
月光博客
月光博客
J
Java Code Geeks
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
P
Proofpoint News Feed
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
雷峰网
雷峰网

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Probabilistic function-on-function nonlinear autoregressi...
Zhouzhou Song, Marcos A. Valdebenito, Styfen Schär, Stefano Mare · 2026-02-02 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Constructing accurate and computationally efficient surrogate models (or emulators) for predicting dynamical system responses is critical in many engineering domains, yet remains challenging due to the strongly nonlinear and high-dimensional mapping from external excitations and system parameters to system responses. This work introduces a novel Function-on-Function Nonlinear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (F2NARX), which reformulates the conventional NARX model from a function-on-function regression perspective, inspired by the recently proposed $\mathcal{F}$-NARX method. The proposed framework substantially improves predictive efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. By combining principal component analysis with Gaussian process regression, F2NARX further enables probabilistic predictions of dynamical responses via the unscented transform in an autoregressive manner. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated through case studies of varying complexity. Results show that F2NARX outperforms state-of-the-art NARX model by orders of magnitude in efficiency while achieving higher accuracy in general. Moreover, its probabilistic prediction capabilities facilitate active learning, enabling accurate estimation of first-passage failure probabilities of dynamical systems using only a small number of training time histories.