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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Empirical investigation of multi-source cross-validation ...
Tuija Leinonen, David Wong, Antti Vasankari, Ali Wahab, Ramesh N · 2024-03-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Traditionally, machine learning-based clinical prediction models have been trained and evaluated on patient data from a single source, such as a hospital. Cross-validation methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of such models on new patients originating from the same source, by repeated random splitting of the data. However, such estimates tend to be highly overoptimistic when compared to accuracy obtained from deploying models to sources not represented in the dataset, such as a new hospital. The increasing availability of multi-source medical datasets provides new opportunities for obtaining more comprehensive and realistic evaluations of expected accuracy through source-level cross-validation designs. In this study, we present a systematic empirical evaluation of standard K-fold cross-validation and leave-source-out cross-validation methods in a multi-source setting. We consider the task of electrocardiogram based cardiovascular disease classification, combining and harmonizing the openly available PhysioNet CinC Challenge 2021 and the Shandong Provincial Hospital datasets for our study. Our results show that K-fold cross-validation, both on single-source and multi-source data, systemically overestimates prediction performance when the end goal is to generalize to new sources. Leave-source-out cross-validation provides more reliable performance estimates, having close to zero bias though larger variability. The evaluation highlights the dangers of obtaining misleading cross-validation results on medical data and demonstrates how these issues can be mitigated when having access to multi-source data.