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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
The elbow statistic: Multiscale clustering statistical si...
Francisco J. Perez-Reche · 2026-03-04 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Selecting the number of clusters remains a fundamental challenge in unsupervised learning. Existing approaches typically focus on identifying a single "optimal" partition, often overlooking statistically meaningful structure present across multiple resolutions. We introduce ElbowSig, a general inferential framework for assessing clustering structure over a range of resolutions. The method formalizes the elbow heuristic by defining a normalized discrete curvature statistic based on the sequence of within-cluster heterogeneity values, and evaluates its significance relative to a null distribution of unstructured data. This yields hypothesis tests across resolutions, enabling simultaneous inference at multiple clustering scales. We derive the asymptotic behavior of the null statistic in both large-sample and high-dimensional regimes, characterizing its limiting form and variability. Because it depends only on the heterogeneity sequence, ElbowSig is compatible with a wide range of clustering algorithms, including hard, fuzzy, and model-based methods. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that the procedure controls Type-I error under unstructured data while providing power to detect multiscale organization, revealing structure that is often missed by single-resolution selection criteria.