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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Sandpile Economics: Theory, Identification, and Evidence Online learning with noisy side observations Spectral Thompson sampling Covariance-adapting algorithm for semi-bandits with application to sparse rewards Ordinary Least Squares is a Special Case of Transformer Metric-Aware Principal Component Analysis (MAPCA):A Unified Framework for Scale-Invariant Representation Learning Robust Low-Rank Tensor Completion based on M-product with Weighted Correlated Total Variation and Sparse Regularization Joint Representation Learning and Clustering via Gradient-Based Manifold Optimization Universality of Gaussian-Mixture Reverse Kernels in Conditional Diffusion Interpretable and Explainable Surrogate Modeling for Simulations: A State-of-the-Art Survey and Perspectives on Explainable AI for Decision-Making Estimating Continuous Treatment Effects with Two-Stage Kernel Ridge Regression A short proof of near-linear convergence of adaptive gradient descent under fourth-order growth and convexity Some Theoretical Limitations of t-SNE Bias-Corrected Adaptive Conformal Inference for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting Identifiability of Potentially Degenerate Gaussian Mixture Models With Piecewise Affine Mixing Rare Event Analysis via Stochastic Optimal Control Adaptive Learning via Off-Model Training and Importance Sampling for Fully Non-Markovian Optimal Stochastic Control. 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The Devil Is in Gradient Entanglement: Energy-Aware Gradient Coordinator for Robust Generalized Category Discovery A Tutorial Review of Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Processes to Accelerate Stationary Point Searches Certified and accurate computation of function space norms of deep neural networks Mini-Batch Covariance, Diffusion Limits, and Oracle Complexity in Stochastic Gradient Descent: A Sampling-Design Perspective Conformal Policy Control Diagnostics for Individual-Level Prediction Instability in Machine Learning for Healthcare Neural Networks With Dense Weights Are Not Universal Approximators Continuous-time reinforcement learning: ellipticity enables model-free value function approximation Scalable spatial point process models for forensic footwear analysis A Review of Diffusion-based Simulation-Based Inference: Foundations and Applications in Non-Ideal Data Scenarios Active Learning with Selective Time-Step Acquisition for PDEs Joint Score-Threshold Optimization for Interpretable Risk Assessment Revisiting Entropy Regularization: Adaptive Coefficient Unlocks Its Potential for LLM Reinforcement Learning Discrete Guidance Matching: Exact Guidance for Discrete Flow Matching PnP-CM: Consistency Models as Plug-and-Play Priors for Inverse Problems Online Distributionally Robust LLM Alignment via Regression to Relative Reward Heavy-Tailed Class-Conditional Priors for Long-Tailed Generative Modeling Random Walk Learning and the Pac-Man Attack Sequential Regression Learning with Randomized Algorithms Diagnosing and Improving Diffusion Models by Estimating the Optimal Loss Value Random Matrix Theory for Deep Learning: Beyond Eigenvalues of Linear Models Scalable Spatiotemporal Inference with Biased Scan Attention Transformer Neural Processes Towards AI-assisted Neutrino Flavor Theory Design Towards Reasonable Concept Bottleneck Models Practical estimation of the optimal classification error with soft labels and calibration Flow-based Generative Modeling of Potential Outcomes and Counterfactuals The Gaussian Latent Machine: Efficient Prior and Posterior Sampling for Inverse Problems Two-Dimensional Deep ReLU CNN Approximation for Korobov Functions: A Constructive Approach FSPO: Few-Shot Optimization of Synthetic Preferences Personalizes to Real Users Identifying Information from Observations with Uncertainty and Novelty A ghost mechanism: An analytical model of abrupt learning in recurrent networks A Multiparty Homomorphic Encryption Approach to Confidential Federated Kaplan Meier Survival Analysis Large Language Models for Market Research: A Data-augmentation Approach Transformer Neural Processes - Kernel Regression FIT-GNN: Faster Inference Time for GNNs that 'FIT' in Memory Using Coarsening Estimating Joint Interventional Distributions from Marginal Interventional Data Nonparametric Sparse Online Learning of the Koopman Operator
AdaVol: An Adaptive Recursive Volatility Prediction Method
2020-06-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood (QML) procedures are theoretically appealing and widely used for statistical inference. While there are extensive references on QML estimation in batch settings, it has attracted little attention in streaming settings until recently. An investigation of the convergence properties of the QML procedure in a general conditionally heteroscedastic time series model is conducted, and the classical batch optimization routines extended to the framework of streaming and large-scale problems. An adaptive recursive estimation routine for GARCH models named AdaVol is presented. The AdaVol procedure relies on stochastic approximations combined with the technique of Variance Targeting Estimation (VTE). This recursive method has computationally efficient properties, while VTE alleviates some convergence difficulties encountered by the usual QML estimation due to a lack of convexity. Empirical results demonstrate a favorable trade-off between AdaVol's stability and the ability to adapt to time-varying estimates for real-life data.

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