






















Rolling origin forecast instability refers to variability in forecasts for a specific period induced by updating the forecast when new data points become available. Recently, an extension to the N-BEATS model for univariate time series point forecasting was proposed to include forecast stability as an additional optimization objective, next to accuracy. It was shown that more stable forecasts can be obtained without harming accuracy by minimizing a composite loss function that contains both a forecast error and a forecast instability component, with a static hyperparameter to control the impact of stability. In this paper, we empirically investigate whether further improvements in stability can be obtained without compromising accuracy by applying dynamic loss weighting algorithms, which change the loss weights during training. We show that existing dynamic loss weighting methods can achieve this objective and provide insights into why this might be the case. Additionally, we propose an extension to the Random Weighting approach -- Task-Aware Random Weighting -- which also achieves this objective.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理,仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。