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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Causal Inference as Distribution Adaptation: Optimizing A...
Ashley Zhang · 2025-12-20 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Standard approaches to causal inference, such as Outcome Regression and Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment (IPWRA), are typically derived through the lens of missing data imputation and identification theory. In this work, we unify these methods from a Machine Learning perspective, reframing ATE estimation as a \textit{domain adaptation problem under distribution shift}. We demonstrate that the canonical Hajek estimator is a special case of IPWRA restricted to a constant hypothesis class, and that IPWRA itself is fundamentally Importance-Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization designed to correct for the covariate shift between the treated sub-population and the target population. Leveraging this unified framework, we critically examine the optimization objectives of Doubly Robust estimators. We argue that standard methods enforce \textit{sufficient but not necessary} conditions for consistency by requiring outcome models to be individually unbiased. We define the true "ATE Risk Function" and show that minimizing it requires only that the biases of the treated and control models structurally cancel out. Exploiting this insight, we propose the \textbf{Joint Robust Estimator (JRE)}. Instead of treating propensity estimation and outcome modeling as independent stages, JRE utilizes bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification of the propensity score to train outcome models jointly. By optimizing for the expected ATE risk over the distribution of propensity scores, JRE leverages model degrees of freedom to achieve robustness against propensity misspecification. Simulation studies demonstrate that JRE achieves up to a 15\% reduction in MSE compared to standard IPWRA in finite-sample regimes with misspecified outcome models.