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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Extending Path-Dependent NJ-ODEs to Noisy Observations an...
William Andersson, Jakob Heiss, Florian Krach, Josef Teichmann · 2023-07-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The Path-Dependent Neural Jump Ordinary Differential Equation (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and incomplete observations. In particular, the method learns optimal forecasts given irregularly sampled time series of incomplete past observations. So far the process itself and the coordinate-wise observation times were assumed to be independent and observations were assumed to be noiseless. In this work we discuss two extensions to lift these restrictions and provide theoretical guarantees as well as empirical examples for them. In particular, we can lift the assumption of independence by extending the theory to much more realistic settings of conditional independence without any need to change the algorithm. Moreover, we introduce a new loss function, which allows us to deal with noisy observations and explain why the previously used loss function did not lead to a consistent estimator.