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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
MVG-CRPS: A Robust Loss Function for Multivariate Probabi...
Vincent Zhihao Zheng, Lijun Sun · 2024-10-11 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Multivariate Gaussian (MVG) distributions are central to modeling correlated continuous variables in probabilistic forecasting. Neural forecasting models typically parameterize the mean vector and covariance matrix of the distribution using neural networks, optimizing with the log-score (negative log-likelihood) as the loss function. However, the sensitivity of the log-score to outliers can lead to significant errors in the presence of anomalies. Drawing on the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) for univariate distributions, we propose MVG-CRPS, a strictly proper scoring rule for MVG distributions. MVG-CRPS admits a closed-form expression in terms of neural network outputs, thereby integrating seamlessly into deep learning frameworks. Experiments on real-world datasets across multivariate autoregressive and univariate sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) forecasting tasks show that MVG-CRPS improves robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification in probabilistic forecasting.