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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
CART Random Forests as Sequential Allocation over Random ...
Tianxing Mei, Yingying Fan, Mingming Leng, Jinchi Lv · 2026-05-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

CART random forests are among the most widely used modern predictive methods, with well-documented empirical success. Yet, at the mechanistic level, the algorithm is often treated as a black box because of its complexity. In this paper, we develop a stochastic-control perspective on feature-subsampled CART random forests, named CART random opportunity-set allocation (CART-ROSA). At each node, the random subset of features is interpreted as a random feasible action set, and the CART split rule as a masked-action allocation policy. This policy induces a controlled stochastic process over informative split-count states, whose terminal law determines both single-tree error and cross-tree interaction terms in the forest mean squared error (MSE). Such representation opens the black box of CART-forests by separating two design levers: the informative-opportunity rate induced by feature subsampling, and the contraction strength from the within-mask split policy. We establish that the CART policy is locally stabilizing: it contracts imbalances in informative split allocations and concentrates terminal tree geometry. At the system level, however, it can be globally suboptimal for the forest objective. Specializing to the linear model, we derive the MSE risk expansion explicitly. Our results show how an operations-research perspective makes tractable a theoretical gap difficult to access from the standard algorithmic description of CART forests.