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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Anchored Variational Inference for Personalized Sequentia...
Xingche Guo · 2026-04-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Sequential latent-variable models with subject-specific random effects provide a flexible framework for modeling temporally structured data with both local latent dynamics and stable between-subject heterogeneity. In such models, conditional inference for the local latent process is often tractable, but integrating over subject-specific random effects can be computationally demanding. We propose an anchored variational inference framework for efficient approximate inference in this setting. The central idea is to replace the full conditional posterior of the local latent process with its evaluation at a representative value of the subject-specific latent effect, called the anchor point, thereby preserving tractable local inference while substantially reducing computational cost. This approximation is especially appealing in sequential settings, where the posterior distribution of the random effect becomes increasingly concentrated as the sequence length grows. Under suitable conditions, we show that the posterior mean is a nearly optimal anchor point and that the resulting anchored variational EM (AVEM) algorithm approximately preserves the local monotonicity behavior of standard variational inference. We instantiate the framework in two representative classes of sequential latent-variable models, namely mixed hidden Markov models and mixed-effects state-space models, derive the corresponding AVEM algorithms, and use simulation studies to indicate that the resulting methods achieve accurate estimation with substantial computational gains. We also discuss a partially anchored variant of the framework, in which only the components of the subject-specific latent effect whose posteriors are well concentrated are anchored.