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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Partially Observable MDP Approach for Sequential Testin...
Rahul Singh, Fang Liu, Ness B. Shroff · 2020-07-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is unfolding as a major international crisis whose influence extends to every aspect of our daily lives. Effective testing allows infected individuals to be quarantined, thus reducing the spread of COVID-19, saving countless lives, and helping to restart the economy safely and securely. Developing a good testing strategy can be greatly aided by contact tracing that provides health care providers information about the whereabouts of infected patients in order to determine whom to test. Countries that have been more successful in corralling the virus typically use a ``test, treat, trace, test'' strategy that begins with testing individuals with symptoms, traces contacts of positively tested individuals via a combinations of patient memory, apps, WiFi, GPS, etc., followed by testing their contacts, and repeating this procedure. The problem is that such strategies are myopic and do not efficiently use the testing resources. This is especially the case with COVID-19, where symptoms may show up several days after the infection (or not at all, there is evidence to suggest that many COVID-19 carriers are asymptotic, but may spread the virus). Such greedy strategies, miss out population areas where the virus may be dormant and flare up in the future. In this paper, we show that the testing problem can be cast as a sequential learning-based resource allocation problem with constraints, where the input to the problem is provided by a time-varying social contact graph obtained through various contact tracing tools. We then develop efficient learning strategies that minimize the number of infected individuals. These strategies are based on policy iteration and look-ahead rules. We investigate fundamental performance bounds, and ensure that our solution is robust to errors in the input graph as well as in the tests themselves.