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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Bayesian Complementary Kernelized Learning for Multidimen...
Mengying Lei, Aurelie Labbe, Lijun Sun · 2022-08-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Probabilistic modeling of multidimensional spatiotemporal data is critical to many real-world applications. As real-world spatiotemporal data often exhibits complex dependencies that are nonstationary and nonseparable, developing effective and computationally efficient statistical models to accommodate nonstationary/nonseparable processes containing both long-range and short-scale variations becomes a challenging task, in particular for large-scale datasets with various corruption/missing structures. In this paper, we propose a new statistical framework -- Bayesian Complementary Kernelized Learning (BCKL) -- to achieve scalable probabilistic modeling for multidimensional spatiotemporal data. To effectively characterize complex dependencies, BCKL integrates two complementary approaches -- kernelized low-rank tensor factorization and short-range spatiotemporal Gaussian Processes. Specifically, we use a multi-linear low-rank factorization component to capture the global/long-range correlations in the data and introduce an additive short-scale GP based on compactly supported kernel functions to characterize the remaining local variabilities. We develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for model inference and evaluate the proposed BCKL framework on both synthetic and real-world spatiotemporal datasets. Our experiment results show that BCKL offers superior performance in providing accurate posterior mean and high-quality uncertainty estimates, confirming the importance of both global and local components in modeling spatiotemporal data.