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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Finite Sample Analysis of Distribution-Free Confidence El...
Szabolcs Szentpéteri, Balázs Csanád Csáji · 2024-09-13 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The least squares (LS) estimate is the archetypical solution of linear regression problems. The asymptotic Gaussianity of the scaled LS error is often used to construct approximate confidence ellipsoids around the LS estimate, however, for finite samples these ellipsoids do not come with strict guarantees, unless some strong assumptions are made on the noise distributions. The paper studies the distribution-free Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) ellipsoidal outer approximation (EOA) algorithm which can construct non-asymptotically guaranteed confidence ellipsoids under mild assumptions, such as independent and symmetric noise terms. These ellipsoids have the same center and orientation as the classical asymptotic ellipsoids, only their radii are different, which radii can be computed by convex optimization. Here, we establish high probability non-asymptotic upper bounds for the sizes of SPS outer ellipsoids for linear regression problems and show that the volumes of these ellipsoids decrease at the optimal rate. Finally, the difference between our theoretical bounds and the empirical sizes of the regions are investigated experimentally.