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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Latent Neural-ODE for Model-Informed Precision Dosing: Ov...
Benjamin Maurel, Agathe Guilloux, Sarah Zohar, Moreno Ursino, Je · 2026-02-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurate estimation of tacrolimus exposure, quantified by the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), is essential for precision dosing after renal transplantation. Current practice relies on population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models based on nonlinear mixed-effects (NLME) methods. However, these models depend on rigid, pre-specified assumptions and may struggle to capture complex, patient-specific dynamics, leading to model misspecification. In this study, we introduce a novel data-driven alternative based on Latent Ordinary Differential Equations (Latent ODEs) for tacrolimus AUC prediction. This deep learning approach learns individualized pharmacokinetic dynamics directly from sparse clinical data, enabling greater flexibility in modeling complex biological behavior. The model was evaluated through extensive simulations across multiple scenarios and benchmarked against two standard approaches: NLME-based estimation and the iterative two-stage Bayesian (it2B) method. We further performed a rigorous clinical validation using a development dataset (n = 178) and a completely independent external dataset (n = 75). In simulation, the Latent ODE model demonstrated superior robustness, maintaining high accuracy even when underlying biological mechanisms deviated from standard assumptions. Regarding experiments on clinical datasets, in internal validation, it achieved significantly higher precision with a mean RMSPE of 7.99% compared with 9.24% for it2B (p < 0.001). On the external cohort, it achieved an RMSPE of 10.82%, comparable to the two standard estimators (11.48% and 11.54%). These results establish the Latent ODE as a powerful and reliable tool for AUC prediction. Its flexible architecture provides a promising foundation for next-generation, multi-modal models in personalized medicine.