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Improved Offline Contextual Bandits with Second-Order Bou...
J. Jon Ryu, Jeongyeol Kwon, Benjamin Koppe, Kwang-Sung Jun · 2025-02-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We consider off-policy selection and learning in contextual bandits, where the learner aims to select or train a reward-maximizing policy using data collected by a fixed behavior policy. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we propose a novel off-policy selection method that leverages a new betting-based confidence bound applied to an inverse propensity weight sequence. Our theoretical analysis reveals that this method achieves a significantly improved, variance-adaptive guarantee over prior work. Second, we propose a novel and generic condition on the optimization objective for off-policy learning that strikes a different balance between bias and variance. One special case, which we call freezing, tends to induce low variance, which is preferred in small-data regimes. Our analysis shows that it matches the best existing guarantees. In our empirical study, our selection method outperforms existing methods, and freezing exhibits improved performance in small-sample regimes.