惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
J
Java Code Geeks
GbyAI
GbyAI
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
L
LangChain Blog
I
InfoQ
D
Docker
F
Fortinet All Blogs
Y
Y Combinator Blog
Martin Fowler
Martin Fowler
月光博客
月光博客
B
Blog
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
罗磊的独立博客
博客园_首页
G
Google Developers Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
D
DataBreaches.Net
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
B
Blog RSS Feed
IT之家
IT之家
V
V2EX

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Generalized Bayes for Causal Inference
Emil Javurek, Dennis Frauen, Yuxin Wang, Stefan Feuerriegel · 2026-03-03 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model for the data-generating process, including high-dimensional nuisance components such as propensity scores and outcome regressions. Standard posteriors are thus vulnerable to strong modeling choices, including complex prior elicitation. In this paper, we propose a generalized Bayesian framework for causal inference. Our framework avoids explicit likelihood modeling; instead, we place priors directly on the causal estimands and update these using an identification-driven loss function, which yields generalized posteriors for causal effects. As a result, our framework turns existing loss-based causal estimators into estimators with full uncertainty quantification. Our framework is flexible and applicable to a broad range of causal estimands (e.g., ATE, CATE). Further, our framework can be applied on top of state-of-the-art causal machine learning pipelines (e.g., Neyman-orthogonal meta-learners). For Neyman-orthogonal losses, we show that the generalized posteriors converge to their oracle counterparts and remain robust to first-stage nuisance estimation error. With calibration, we thus obtain valid frequentist uncertainty even when nuisance estimators converge at slower-than-parametric rates. Empirically, we demonstrate that our proposed framework offers causal effect estimation with calibrated uncertainty across several causal inference settings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first flexible framework for constructing generalized Bayesian posteriors for causal machine learning.