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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Causal Mediation Analysis with Multiple Mediators: A Simu...
Jesse Zhou, Geoffrey T. Wodtke · 2025-06-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Analyses of causal mediation often involve exposure-induced confounders or, relatedly, multiple mediators. In such applications, researchers aim to estimate a variety of different quantities, including interventional direct and indirect effects, multivariate natural direct and indirect effects, and/or path-specific effects. This study introduces a general approach to estimating all these quantities by simulating potential outcomes from a series of distribution models for each mediator and the outcome. Building on similar methods developed for analyses with only a single mediator (Imai et al. 2010), we first outline how to implement this approach with parametric models. The parametric implementation can accommodate linear and nonlinear relationships, both continuous and discrete mediators, and many different types of outcomes. However, it depends on correct specification of each model used to simulate the potential outcomes. To address the risk of misspecification, we also introduce an alternative implementation using a novel class of nonparametric models, which leverage deep neural networks to approximate the relevant distributions without relying on strict assumptions about functional form. We illustrate both methods by reanalyzing the effects of media framing on attitudes toward immigration (Brader et al. 2008) and the effects of prenatal care on preterm birth (VanderWeele et al. 2014).