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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Trust, or Don't Predict: Introducing the CWSA Family for ...
Kourosh Shahnazari, Seyed Moein Ayyoubzadeh, Mohammadali Keshtpa · 2025-05-24 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

In recent machine learning systems, confidence scores are being utilized more and more to manage selective prediction, whereby a model can abstain from making a prediction when it is unconfident. Yet, conventional metrics like accuracy, expected calibration error (ECE), and area under the risk-coverage curve (AURC) do not capture the actual reliability of predictions. These metrics either disregard confidence entirely, dilute valuable localized information through averaging, or neglect to suitably penalize overconfident misclassifications, which can be particularly detrimental in real-world systems. We introduce two new metrics Confidence-Weighted Selective Accuracy (CWSA) and its normalized variant CWSA+ that offer a principled and interpretable way to evaluate predictive models under confidence thresholds. Unlike existing methods, our metrics explicitly reward confident accuracy and penalize overconfident mistakes. They are threshold-local, decomposable, and usable in both evaluation and deployment settings where trust and risk must be quantified. Through exhaustive experiments on both real-world data sets (MNIST, CIFAR-10) and artificial model variants (calibrated, overconfident, underconfident, random, perfect), we show that CWSA and CWSA+ both effectively detect nuanced failure modes and outperform classical metrics in trust-sensitive tests. Our results confirm that CWSA is a sound basis for developing and assessing selective prediction systems for safety-critical domains.