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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Nonlinearity and Uncertainty Informed Moment-Matching Gau...
Jackson Kulik, Keith A. LeGrand · 2024-11-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Many problems in navigation and tracking require increasingly accurate characterizations of the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Nonlinear uncertainty propagation approaches based on Gaussian mixture density approximations offer distinct advantages over sampling based methods in their computational cost and continuous representation. State-of-the-art Gaussian mixture approaches are adaptive in that individual Gaussian mixands are selectively split into mixtures to yield better approximations of the true propagated distribution. Despite the importance of the splitting process to accuracy and computational efficiency, relatively little work has been devoted to mixand selection and splitting direction optimization. The first part of this work presents splitting methods that preserve the mean and covariance of the original distribution. Then, we present and compare a number of novel heuristics for selecting the splitting direction. The choice of splitting direction is informed by the initial uncertainty distribution, properties of the nonlinear function through which the original distribution is propagated, and a whitening based natural scaling method to avoid dependence of the splitting direction on the scaling of coordinates. We compare these novel heuristics to existing techniques in three distinct examples involving Cartesian to polar coordinate transformation, Keplerian orbital element propagation, and uncertainty propagation in the circular restricted three-body problem.