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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Distributionally Robust Instrumental Variables Estimation
Zhaonan Qu, Yongchan Kwon · 2024-10-21 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Instrumental variables (IV) estimation is a fundamental method in econometrics and statistics for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, challenges such as untestable model assumptions and poor finite sample properties have undermined its reliability in practice. Viewing common issues in IV estimation as distributional uncertainties, we propose DRIVE, a distributionally robust IV estimation method. We show that DRIVE minimizes a square root variant of ridge regularized two stage least squares (TSLS) objective when the ambiguity set is based on a Wasserstein distance. In addition, we develop a novel asymptotic theory for this estimator, showing that it achieves consistency without requiring the regularization parameter to vanish. This novel property ensures that the estimator is robust to distributional uncertainties that persist in large samples. We further derive the asymptotic distribution of Wasserstein DRIVE and propose data-driven procedures to select the regularization parameter based on theoretical results. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior finite sample performance of Wasserstein DRIVE in terms of estimation error and out-of-sample prediction. Due to its regularization and robustness properties, Wasserstein DRIVE presents an appealing option when the practitioner is uncertain about model assumptions or distributional shifts in data.