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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Large Scale Evaluation of Deep Learning-based Explainable...
Temitope Adeyeha, Chetraj Pandey, Berkay Aydin · 2024-11-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurate and reliable predictions of solar flares are essential due to their potentially significant impact on Earth and space-based infrastructure. Although deep learning models have shown notable predictive capabilities in this domain, current evaluations often focus on accuracy while neglecting interpretability and reliability--factors that are especially critical in operational settings. To address this gap, we propose a novel proximity-based framework for analyzing post hoc explanations to assess the interpretability of deep learning models for solar flare prediction. Our study compares two models trained on full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images to predict $\geq$M-class solar flares within a 24-hour window. We employ the Guided Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Guided Grad-CAM) method to generate attribution maps from these models, which we then analyze to gain insights into their decision-making processes. To support the evaluation of explanations in operational systems, we introduce a proximity-based metric that quantitatively assesses the accuracy and relevance of local explanations when regions of interest are known. Our findings indicate that the models' predictions align with active region characteristics to varying degrees, offering valuable insights into their behavior. This framework enhances the evaluation of model interpretability in solar flare forecasting and supports the development of more transparent and reliable operational systems.