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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Deep L...
Wenchong He, Zhe Jiang, Tingsong Xiao, Zelin Xu, Yukun Li · 2023-02-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to serious consequences in high-stakes applications such as autonomous driving, medical diagnosis, and disaster response. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) estimates the confidence of DNN predictions in addition to their accuracy. In recent years, many UQ methods have been developed for DNNs. It is valuable to systematically categorize these methods and compare their strengths and limitations. Existing surveys mostly categorize UQ methodologies by neural network architecture or Bayesian formulation, while overlooking the uncertainty sources each method addresses, making it difficult to select an appropriate approach in practice. To fill this gap, this paper presents a taxonomy of UQ methods for DNNs based on uncertainty sources (e.g., data versus model uncertainty). We summarize the advantages and disadvantages of each category, and illustrate how UQ can be applied to machine learning problems (e.g., active learning, out-of-distribution robustness, and deep reinforcement learning). We also identify future research directions, including UQ for large language models (LLMs), AI-driven scientific simulations, and deep neural networks with structured outputs.