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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Robust CATE Estimation Using Novel Ensemble Methods
Oshri Machluf, Tzviel Frostig, Gal Shoham, Tomer Milo, Elad Berk · 2024-07-04 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) is crucial for understanding the heterogeneity of treatment effects in clinical trials. We evaluate the performance of common methods, including causal forests and various meta-learners, across a diverse set of scenarios, revealing that each of the methods struggles in one or more of the tested scenarios. Given the inherent uncertainty of the data-generating process in real-life scenarios, the robustness of a CATE estimator to various scenarios is critical for its reliability. To address this limitation of existing methods, we propose two new ensemble methods that integrate multiple estimators to enhance prediction stability and performance - Stacked X-Learner which uses the X-Learner with model stacking for estimating the nuisance functions, and Consensus Based Averaging (CBA), which averages only the models with highest internal agreement. We show that these models achieve good performance across a wide range of scenarios varying in complexity, sample size and structure of the underlying-mechanism, including a biologically driven model for PD-L1 inhibition pathway for cancer treatment. Furthermore, we demonstrate improved performance by the Stacked X-Learner also when comparing to other ensemble methods, including R-Stacking, Causal-Stacking and others.