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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity...
Alim Igilik · 2026-05-21 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from Central Asia (2010-2024), where a likelihood-ratio test with boundary correction strongly rejects the Poisson hypothesis (p < 10^{-179}). The main contribution of this work is the EarthquakeNet architecture, which provides an endogenous per-cell estimate of the overdispersion parameter alpha via a neural network (spatial embeddings + MLP), without explicit spatial covariance specification. In contrast to existing negative binomial regression approaches in seismological forecasting, which typically assume a single global alpha, the proposed per-cell formulation allows the model to identify spatial heterogeneity in seismic clustering and to construct probabilistic risk-aware alerts via quantiles of the predicted distribution. A walk-forward evaluation (2018-2023) over four systems shows an 8.6 percent reduction in mean pinball deviation (MPD) relative to a negative binomial GLM baseline. The strongest improvements are observed in the tail regime (Y >= 5), where the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the proposed model is 12.5 percent lower than that of the baseline, indicating improved calibration in extreme-event forecasting.