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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Robust Hypothesis Test for Tree Ensemble Pruning
Daniel de Marchi, Matthew Welch, Michael Kosorok · 2023-01-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Gradient boosted decision trees are some of the most popular algorithms in applied machine learning. They are a flexible and powerful tool that can robustly fit to any tabular dataset in a scalable and computationally efficient way. One of the most critical parameters to tune when fitting these models are the various penalty terms used to distinguish signal from noise in the current model. These penalties are effective in practice, but are lacking in robust theoretical justifications. In this paper we develop and present a novel theoretically justified hypothesis test of split quality for gradient boosted tree ensembles and demonstrate that using this method instead of the common penalty terms leads to a significant reduction in out of sample loss. Additionally, this method provides a theoretically well-justified stopping condition for the tree growing algorithm. We also present several innovative extensions to the method, opening the door for a wide variety of novel tree pruning algorithms.