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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Optimal Estimation of Watermark Proportions in Hybrid AI-...
Xiang Li, Garrett Wen, Weiqing He, Jiayuan Wu, Qi Long, Weijie J · 2025-06-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Text watermarks in large language models (LLMs) are an increasingly important tool for detecting synthetic text and distinguishing human-written content from LLM-generated text. While most existing studies focus on determining whether entire texts are watermarked, many real-world scenarios involve mixed-source texts, which blend human-written and watermarked content. In this paper, we address the problem of optimally estimating the watermark proportion in mixed-source texts. We cast this problem as estimating the proportion parameter in a mixture model based on \emph{pivotal statistics}. First, we show that this parameter is not even identifiable in certain watermarking schemes, let alone consistently estimable. In stark contrast, for watermarking methods that employ continuous pivotal statistics for detection, we demonstrate that the proportion parameter is identifiable under mild conditions. We propose efficient estimators for this class of methods, which include several popular unbiased watermarks as examples, and derive minimax lower bounds for any measurable estimator based on pivotal statistics, showing that our estimators achieve these lower bounds. Through evaluations on both synthetic data and mixed-source text generated by open-source models, we demonstrate that our proposed estimators consistently achieve high estimation accuracy.