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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Low-Rank Autoregressive Tensor Completion for Multivariat...
Xinyu Chen, Lijun Sun · 2020-06-18 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Time series prediction has been a long-standing research topic and an essential application in many domains. Modern time series collected from sensor networks (e.g., energy consumption and traffic flow) are often large-scale and incomplete with considerable corruption and missing values, making it difficult to perform accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose a low-rank autoregressive tensor completion (LATC) framework to model multivariate time series data. The key of LATC is to transform the original multivariate time series matrix (e.g., sensor$\times$time point) to a third-order tensor structure (e.g., sensor$\times$time of day$\times$day) by introducing an additional temporal dimension, which allows us to model the inherent rhythms and seasonality of time series as global patterns. With the tensor structure, we can transform the time series prediction and missing data imputation problems into a universal low-rank tensor completion problem. Besides minimizing tensor rank, we also integrate a novel autoregressive norm on the original matrix representation into the objective function. The two components serve different roles. The low-rank structure allows us to effectively capture the global consistency and trends across all the three dimensions (i.e., similarity among sensors, similarity of different days, and current time v.s. the same time of historical days). The autoregressive norm can better model the local temporal trends. Our numerical experiments on three real-world data sets demonstrate the superiority of the integration of global and local trends in LATC in both missing data imputation and rolling prediction tasks.