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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Deep Time Series Forecasting with Shape and Temporal Crit...
Vincent Le Guen, Nicolas Thome · 2021-04-10 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

This paper addresses the problem of multi-step time series forecasting for non-stationary signals that can present sudden changes. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods, often trained with variants of the MSE, lack the ability to provide sharp predictions in deterministic and probabilistic contexts. To handle these challenges, we propose to incorporate shape and temporal criteria in the training objective of deep models. We define shape and temporal similarities and dissimilarities, based on a smooth relaxation of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Temporal Distortion Index (TDI), that enable to build differentiable loss functions and positive semi-definite (PSD) kernels. With these tools, we introduce DILATE (DIstortion Loss including shApe and TimE), a new objective for deterministic forecasting, that explicitly incorporates two terms supporting precise shape and temporal change detection. For probabilistic forecasting, we introduce STRIPE++ (Shape and Time diverRsIty in Probabilistic forEcasting), a framework for providing a set of sharp and diverse forecasts, where the structured shape and time diversity is enforced with a determinantal point process (DPP) diversity loss. Extensive experiments and ablations studies on synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the benefits of leveraging shape and time features in time series forecasting.