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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Uncovering Feature Interdependencies in High-Noise Enviro...
Delilah Donick, Sandro Claudio Lera · 2020-09-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Conventionally, random forests are built from "greedy" decision trees which each consider only one split at a time during their construction. The sub-optimality of greedy implementation has been well-known, yet mainstream adoption of more sophisticated tree building algorithms has been lacking. We examine under what circumstances an implementation of less greedy decision trees actually yields outperformance. To this end, a "stepwise lookahead" variation of the random forest algorithm is presented for its ability to better uncover binary feature interdependencies. In contrast to the greedy approach, the decision trees included in this random forest algorithm, each simultaneously consider three split nodes in tiers of depth two. It is demonstrated on synthetic data and financial price time series that the lookahead version significantly outperforms the greedy one when (a) certain non-linear relationships between feature-pairs are present and (b) if the signal-to-noise ratio is particularly low. A long-short trading strategy for copper futures is then backtested by training both greedy and stepwise lookahead random forests to predict the signs of daily price returns. The resulting superior performance of the lookahead algorithm is at least partially explained by the presence of "XOR-like" relationships between long-term and short-term technical indicators. More generally, across all examined datasets, when no such relationships between features are present, performance across random forests is similar. Given its enhanced ability to understand the feature-interdependencies present in complex systems, this lookahead variation is a useful extension to the toolkit of data scientists, in particular for financial machine learning, where conditions (a) and (b) are typically met.