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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A partial likelihood approach to tree-based density model...
Li Ma, Benedetta Bruni · 2024-12-16 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Tree-based priors for probability distributions are usually specified using a predetermined, data-independent collection of candidate recursive partitions of the sample space. To characterize an unknown target density in detail over the entire sample space, candidate partitions must have the capacity to expand deeply into all areas of the sample space with potential non-zero sampling probability. Such an expansive system of partitions often incurs prohibitive computational costs and makes inference prone to overfitting, especially in regions with little probability mass. Thus, existing models typically make a compromise and rely on relatively shallow trees. This hampers one of the most desirable features of trees, their ability to characterize local features, and results in reduced statistical efficiency. Traditional wisdom suggests that this compromise is inevitable to ensure coherent likelihood-based reasoning in Bayesian inference, as a data-dependent partition system that allows deeper expansion only in regions with more observations would induce double dipping of the data. We propose a simple strategy to restore coherency while allowing the candidate partitions to be data-dependent, using Cox's partial likelihood. Our partial likelihood approach is broadly applicable to existing likelihood-based methods and, in particular, to Bayesian inference on tree-based models. We give examples in density estimation in which the partial likelihood is endowed with existing priors on tree-based models and compare with the standard, full-likelihood approach. The results show substantial gains in estimation accuracy and computational efficiency from adopting the partial likelihood.