惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

B
Blog
量子位
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
Jina AI
Jina AI
雷峰网
雷峰网
博客园_首页
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
博客园 - 司徒正美
爱范儿
爱范儿
博客园 - 聂微东
IT之家
IT之家
美团技术团队
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
博客园 - Franky
V
V2EX
GbyAI
GbyAI
阮一峰的网络日志
阮一峰的网络日志

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
How Well Do LLMs Predict Human Behavior? A Measure of the...
Wayne Gao, Sukjin Han, Annie Liang · 2026-01-18 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of task-specific data needed to match the predictive accuracy of the LLM. We estimate this measure by comparing the prediction error of a fixed LLM in a given domain to that of flexible machine learning models trained on increasing samples of domain-specific data. We further provide a statistical inference procedure by developing a new asymptotic theory for cross-validated prediction error. Finally, we apply this method to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that LLMs encode considerable predictive information for some economic variables but much less for others, suggesting that their value as substitutes for domain-specific data differs markedly across settings.