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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
CONTRA: Conformal Prediction Region via Normalizing Flow ...
Zhenhan Fang, Aixin Tan, Jian Huang · 2026-05-09 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Density estimation and reliable prediction regions for outputs are crucial in supervised and unsupervised learning. While conformal prediction effectively generates coverage-guaranteed regions, it struggles with multi-dimensional outputs due to reliance on one-dimensional nonconformity scores. To address this, we introduce CONTRA: CONformal prediction region via normalizing flow TRAnsformation. CONTRA utilizes the latent spaces of normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances from the center. This allows for the mapping of high-density regions in latent space to sharp prediction regions in the output space, surpassing traditional hyperrectangular or elliptical conformal regions. Further, for scenarios where other predictive models are favored over flow-based models, we extend CONTRA to enhance any such model with a reliable prediction region by training a simple normalizing flow on the residuals. We demonstrate that both CONTRA and its extension maintain guaranteed coverage probability and outperform existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions across various datasets. We conclude that CONTRA is an effective tool for (conditional) density estimation, addressing the under-explored challenge of delivering multi-dimensional prediction regions.